LME Aluminium and Alumina Market Developments: Update as of July 24, 2025

The global metals market continues to witness notable fluctuations, particularly for aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and its raw material, alumina. As of July 24, 2025, LME aluminium prices have seen a slight downward adjustment in recent days, while alumina prices are reported to be on an upward trend, reflecting various pressures within the supply chain.

LME Aluminium Price Dynamics: Adjustments and Trends

In recent trading sessions, LME aluminium prices have shown a slight downward correction. Specifically, on July 23 and 24, 2025, LME aluminium prices decreased by approximately 0.3% to 0.5%, hovering around 2,645.5 USD/tonne to 2,654 USD/tonne. This decline follows a period of significant growth in July.

Looking back at previous months, LME aluminium prices have experienced clear fluctuations:

• May 2025: Prices reached 2,397.50 USD/tonne, a decrease of 5.81% compared to April.
• June 2025: Prices saw a slight recovery to 2,446.40 USD/tonne, an increase of 2.00% compared to May.
• July 2025: Prices continued to rise sharply to 2,646.90 USD/tonne, an increase of 7.57% compared to June.

Despite the slight downward adjustment in late July, the overall trend for LME aluminium prices this month remains strong growth, indicating a market recovery after the price decline in May.

Alumina Market: Raw Material Cost Pressures

Parallel to the developments in finished aluminium, the alumina market – the primary raw material for aluminium production – has also seen changes. According to initial reports, alumina prices have increased by approximately 2.78 USD/tonne. While this specific figure has not been independently verified by external sources, an upward trend in alumina prices would directly increase aluminium production costs, putting pressure on manufacturers and potentially affecting the final price of aluminium.

Market Outlook and Influencing Factors

The global aluminium market in the second half of 2025 is expected to continue to be influenced by various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Although some initial forecasts suggested that aluminium prices might fluctuate within a range of 2,300–2,550 USD/tonne in H2 2025, it should be noted that this forecast has not been independently verified and may change based on actual developments.

Key factors shaping the market include:

• Public Investment in China: China's economic stimulus policies and infrastructure investments could boost aluminium demand.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Global conflicts and instability can affect supply chains and energy prices, thereby impacting aluminium production costs.
• Monetary Policies of the US and EU: Interest rate decisions and fiscal policies by major central banks can influence purchasing power and market sentiment.
• Aluminium Premiums: Aluminium premiums in major markets like Japan and Europe remain high, reflecting unreduced transportation and logistics costs, contributing to the overall price.

These factors create a complex picture for the aluminium market, requiring investors and businesses to monitor closely to make informed decisions.

Information compiled and updated as of July 24, 2025, based on analysis from AlCircle and market data sources.