Bank of America Projects Copper Price to Surge Past $11,000 in 2026: Driven by Energy Transition and Infrastructure

September 30, 2025 – The global copper market is poised for a promising outlook, with Bank of America (BofA) forecasting copper prices to exceed $11,000 per metric ton by 2026. This bullish projection is underpinned by robust demand stemming from the global energy transition, critical minerals investment, and increasing infrastructure spending. While some other analysts maintain a more cautious near-term view, the consensus on copper's essential role in a greener future remains strong.

Bank of America's Bullish Outlook

Bank of America believes that copper prices will surge, surpassing $11,000/mt in 2026. This forecast is based on several key factors:

• Energy Transition Demand: Copper is a pivotal metal in electrification, battery production, AI data centers, and other green energy technologies.
• Critical Minerals Investment: Increased investment in the mining and processing of critical minerals, including copper, to ensure supply security.
• Infrastructure Spending: Major infrastructure projects, particularly in the U.S., will drive copper demand.
• Reshoring Trends: The shift of manufacturing back to domestic and regional locations to reduce reliance on global supply chains also contributes to increased domestic copper demand.

BofA emphasizes that disruptions and geopolitical tensions may accelerate the shift to domestic mining and refining for critical minerals like copper, thereby boosting long-term supply security and supporting prices.

Demand Drivers from Green Future and Technology

Copper is dubbed the "metal of the future" due to its indispensable role in emerging technologies and the energy transition.

• Electrification: From smart grids to energy-efficient heating and cooling systems, copper is a core component.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Each EV uses 2-4 times more copper than a traditional gasoline-powered car, driving significant demand.
• Renewable Energy: Solar and wind power projects require substantial amounts of copper for wiring and connections.
• AI Data Centers: The explosion of artificial intelligence is creating new demand for copper in energy-intensive data centers.

These trends create a strong long-term structural demand for copper, transcending short-term economic cycles.

Supply Dynamics and Geopolitical Context

Despite soaring demand, global copper supply faces numerous challenges. New mining projects often take years to come online, and increasingly stringent environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations also slow down development.

Governments, particularly in the U.S., are encouraging a surge in domestic mining and refining of critical minerals to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains, especially from geopolitical rivals. This could lead to a new wave of investment in the copper mining sector, but also comes with cost and timeline risks.

Contrasting Views and Market Risks

While BofA presents a very optimistic forecast, other analysts like J.P. Morgan offer a more cautious near-term view. J.P. Morgan projects copper to average around $8,300/mt in Q2 2025, noting that global demand slowdowns and trade uncertainties (such as tariffs) could cause demand destruction, negatively impacting downstream industries. However, they also acknowledge that Chinese demand could temporarily keep prices near $9,000/mt.

Merrill Lynch also notes early signs of a cyclical growth pickup heading into 2026, which would support copper prices. This indicates a broad consensus on copper's fundamental importance for the green energy transition, despite differences in the timing and magnitude of price increases.

Investment Trends and Strategic Implications

Capital expenditures on critical minerals mining and AI infrastructure are on the rise. However, investors need to be mindful of revenue timing and margin risks, especially as new infrastructure may take time to depreciate before full AI revenue benefits materialize.

For investors, managers, and technical experts in the industry, closely monitoring energy policies, technological advancements, and geopolitical dynamics is crucial. Investing in more efficient extraction and processing technologies, as well as recycling solutions, will be key to ensuring a stable and sustainable copper supply in the future.

To gain a deeper understanding of other metallic materials, you might also explore stainless steel.

References:

• Mining.com
• J.P. Morgan Research
• Bank of America Global Research
• Merrill Lynch
• Privatebank.bankofamerica.com