Copper Market in H2 2025: J.P. Morgan Turns Cautious

New York, July 25, 2025 – After an exuberant first half of the year, J.P. Morgan Global Research has adopted a more cautious outlook for the copper market for the latter six months of 2025. Experts warn that the market could enter a "period of payback" as the tailwinds from the beginning of the year gradually fade.

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, commented, "We think the second half of 2025 will bring payback, unwinding the front-loading dynamics and reducing demand, leaving us more cautious on copper prices over the balance of the year."

Reasons Behind the Caution

J.P. Morgan's more pessimistic view stems from two primary factors:

• Unwinding of US Front-Loading: Tariff threats in the first half of the year prompted US importers to accelerate their copper purchases and build inventories. This dynamic is now weakening and risks reversing into a headwind as excess inventory needs to be drawn down.
• Slowing Demand from China: J.P. Morgan forecasts a deceleration in Chinese copper demand in the second half of the year. This is attributed to a slowdown in the housing completions sector, air conditioning manufacturing, and a significant reduction in solar energy installations due to regulatory changes.

Supportive Factors Remain but Are Challenged

Despite the short-term headwinds, the long-term fundamental supports for copper prices remain intact. The green revolution, including electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy, continues to create strong structural demand for copper.

However, J.P. Morgan believes that the short-term demand slowdown from traditional sectors will be more significant and enough to outweigh these positive factors, potentially pushing prices lower. The bank had previously forecasted an average copper price of $9,225/mt for the second half of the year, but this figure may be revised given the new outlook.

Market Outlook

In summary, while the long-term narrative of a supply deficit driven by the energy transition remains a powerful bullish factor, the copper market is expected to face numerous challenges over the next six months.

Investors and businesses should prepare for a period of potential price correction and increased volatility as the market digests high inventory levels in the US and slowing demand from China, before the long-term growth drivers can take effect once more.