Global Steel Production Continues to Decline in July and First Seven Months of 2025: Drivers and Impacts

August 28, 2025 – The global steel industry continues to face significant challenges, as evidenced by the latest production data from the World Steel Association. In July 2025, total global crude steel production registered a continuous decline, reflecting a complex macroeconomic landscape and shifting market dynamics. With a total output of 150.1 million tons from 70 producing countries, the 1.3% year-on-year decrease and 0.8% month-on-month decrease indicate a clear weakening trend. This situation becomes even more pronounced when examining the cumulative production for the first seven months of the year, which shows a notable reduction compared to the same period last year. This necessitates a deep understanding of the factors shaping the market, from trade policies to regional demand, for investors, managers, and technical experts alike.

Analysis of Global and Regional Production Trends

Global crude steel production in July 2025 amounted to 150.1 million tons, marking a 1.3% decrease compared to July 2024. This is the second consecutive month of global steel output decline and also one of the lowest monthly production levels in 2025. Cumulatively, global steel production for the January-July 2025 period reached 1.086 billion tons, a 1.9% year-on-year reduction. This downward trend is consistent with broader market analyses, indicating persistent pressure on the global steel industry.

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Ukraine region also experienced significant contraction. In July, the region's total output was 6.7 million tons, down 5.1% year-on-year and remaining at June's level. Notably, Ukraine recorded a sharp decline of 18.1% year-on-year and 6.6% month-on-month, reaching only 580.5 thousand tons. For the January-July 2025 period, the CIS+Ukraine region's production decreased by 4.8% year-on-year to 48.6 million tons, with Ukraine contributing 4.27 million tons, down 7%.

For a comprehensive perspective, a comparison with the previous year is essential. According to GMK Center, global steel production in 2024 decreased by 0.9% compared to 2023, totaling 1.839 billion tons. Specifically in December 2024, output was 144.5 million tons, an increase of 5.6% from December 2023 but a 1.6% decrease from the previous month. Ukraine, in 2024, produced 7.57 million tons of steel, a strong increase of 21.6% compared to 2023, with December 2024 reaching 547,000 tons, up 5.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month. Ukraine's recovery in 2024 demonstrates the industry's adaptability amid challenges.

Diverse Landscape Among Top Producing Nations

July 2025 data reveals a varied production landscape among the leading steel-producing countries:

• China, the world's largest steel producer, recorded an output of 79.7 million tons, a decrease of 4% year-on-year. This decline reflects a slowdown in domestic demand, measures to cut excess capacity, and government environmental targets.
• India remains a bright spot with an output of 14 million tons, a robust increase of 14% year-on-year. This growth is driven by its expanding industrial sector and significant infrastructure investments.
• The USA produced 7.1 million tons, a 4.8% increase, indicating stable demand.
• Other countries such as Japan (6.9 million tons, down 2.5%), Russia (5.7 million tons, down 2.4%), South Korea (5.3 million tons, down 4.7%), Brazil (2.9 million tons, down 5.5%), and Germany (2.7 million tons, down 13.7%) all showed either declining or modest growth trends. The significant drop in Germany suggests the economic pressures faced by Europe.
• Most notably, Iran, with 2.2 million tons, surged by 29.7%. This impressive growth could be a result of recovery or expansion efforts in Iran's steel industry despite sanctions and regional tensions.
• Turkey also recorded positive growth of 4.2%, reaching 3.2 million tons.

This divergence underscores that the global steel market is not monolithic, with varying economic, political, and geopolitical factors influencing each region and country.

Factors Driving and Inhibiting Steel Production

The decline in global steel production is fueled by a combination of factors. One of the primary causes is the impact of new tariff policies, particularly the 25% U.S. import tariff on semi-finished steel, which has disrupted international supply chains and sourcing patterns. This has led to adjustments in trade flows and pressure on manufacturers.

Secondly, a slowdown in industrial and construction activities worldwide has reduced overall demand for steel. Many major economies are experiencing periods of slow growth or recession, directly affecting key steel-consuming sectors. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to have far-reaching consequences, impacting production and demand in Eastern Europe, as well as causing volatility in energy and raw material prices.

While some regions, such as North America and countries in Africa, experienced slight increases in production, these were insufficient to offset the declines in larger producing regions like China, Europe, and parts of Asia and Oceania. This uneven development reflects an uncoordinated economic recovery and diverse national policies.

Market Impact and Outlook

For investors and businesses in the steel industry, the production data for July and the first seven months of 2025 signal that caution is warranted. This downward trend could lead to further downward price pressure, especially if global demand does not significantly improve in the second half of the year. Companies will need to focus on cost management, operational optimization, and seeking niche markets or higher value-added products to maintain profitability.

The divergence among countries also creates unique opportunities and challenges. Producers in countries with strong domestic demand (like India) may sustain growth, while those heavily reliant on exports or facing economic downturns (like China and Germany) will have to adapt to the new environment. Iran's strong production increase, albeit with smaller absolute volumes, suggests the potential for recovery in markets affected by policy or geopolitics.

In the long term, the steel industry will continue to be influenced by urbanization, infrastructure development, and green transition trends. However, in the short term, factors such as trade policies, energy prices, and the global macroeconomic situation will be key variables to monitor closely.

Conclusion

Global steel production in July and the first seven months of 2025 presents a challenging market picture, with a general downward trend but clear differentiation across regions and countries. Factors such as tariffs, economic downturns, and geopolitical conflicts continue to reshape the industry landscape. To navigate this period, stakeholders need flexible strategies, focusing on risk management and leveraging opportunities in domestic demand or product diversification. A deep understanding of market dynamics will be key to maintaining sustainability and competitiveness in a volatile environment.

Source: World Steel Association, GMK Center, Market Analysis (Updated August 28, 2025)