China's Steel Exports in 2025: Record Highs and Escalating Trade Conflict Risks

Hanoi, September 17, 2025 – The global steel industry is bracing for a period of significant volatility as China, the world's largest steel producer, is projected to achieve record-high export volumes in 2025. This substantial increase, estimated to potentially exceed 90-100 million tons, not only reflects profound shifts in China's domestic supply and demand dynamics but also carries the inherent risk of triggering a new wave of tariffs and protectionist trade measures from importing nations.

Market Context and Export Drivers

Amidst a persistently sluggish real estate market in China, domestic steel demand has significantly declined. This situation compels China's colossal steel producers, including major players like Baoshan Iron & Steel, to seek new overseas markets to sustain production and profitability. Statistical data indicates that in the first five months of 2025, China's finished steel exports reached 48.47 million tons, an 8.9% increase year-on-year. By the first half of the year, this figure surpassed 58 million tons, marking a 9.2% rise compared to the same period, confirming a robust growth trend.

Market analysts forecast that China's total steel exports for the entirety of 2025 could range from 90 to 100 million tons, an unprecedented volume. This growth is particularly noteworthy when compared to the 80.7 million tons exported in the first nine months (a 21.2% increase), indicating a strong surge in the latter part of the year. The ambitious targets of major companies like Baoshan Iron & Steel, with plans to export over 6 million tons by 2025 and 10 million tons by 2028, further solidify predictions of an intensely competitive Chinese steel export market.

Risks of Trade Conflict and Policy Responses

This explosion in steel exports from China is generating deep concerns across the global market. Many countries, particularly developed economies and those with strong domestic steel industries, are facing intense competitive pressure from low-cost Chinese steel. This could lead to a wave of anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties, and other non-tariff barriers aimed at protecting domestic producers.

In the past, protectionist trade measures have been implemented but seemingly have not been sufficient to curb China's export growth momentum. Given the current situation, analysts anticipate that these measures will be significantly strengthened in the near future, potentially including an expansion of the scope of products subject to tariffs or an increase in tariff rates. This will not only affect Chinese steel exporters but also impact global supply chains, altering trade flows and the structure of the international steel market.

Outlook and Challenges

In the short term, China's steel exports are expected to remain high, although they may slightly decrease in 2026 to approximately 100-105 million tons due to increasing trade barriers. However, pressure from weak domestic demand will continue to drive Chinese producers to seek external markets. This poses significant challenges for investors and industry professionals, demanding a deep understanding of market dynamics and the ability to adapt to evolving trade policies.

For businesses in the construction and manufacturing sectors, closely monitoring global steel market developments and trade policies is crucial. Diversifying supply sources and exploring alternative material solutions, such as various types of aluminum sheets or aluminum coils, could be an effective strategy to mitigate risks from steel market volatility.

References:

• Reuters (September 16, 2025)
• CafeF (October 22, 2024)
• Vietstock (June 11, 2025, July 15, 2025)
• Báo Mới (September 16, 2025)
• VietnamBiz (September 17, 2025)
• VnExpress (September 16, 2025)